- Irish PM Leo Varadkar warned there are still ‘many issues’ still to be solved
- Hinted that an emergency summit might be needed in around a fortnight’s time
- Blueprint thought to revolve around dual customs status for Northern Ireland
- EU customs border in Irish Sea but NI businesses would be offered rebates
- DUP Leader Arlene Foster appeared to torpedo that idea in visit to No10
- But EU’s Michel Barnier says he remains ‘optimistic’ despite standstill
- EU leaders and Boris Johnson are due to convene at a crucial tomorrow
Boris Johnson’s hopes of honouring his ‘do or die’ vow to deliver Brexit by Halloween look to be crumbling today after the DUP pulled the rug.
UK and EU negotiators are frantically trying to find a way through after coming tantalisingly close to the legal text of a settlement last night.
But the delicate process has been derailed by objections from the DUP, who complained that the mechanism for getting ‘consent’ from the people of Northern Ireland breaks the Good Friday Agreement.
Laying bare the divisions with the government this afternoon, the party’s Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson said it should be modelled on the peace terms, which requires backing from a majority of both communities.
‘UK & EU negotiators, who have ad nauseam pontificated about the need to respect the (Good Friday) Agreement, have no business interfering in the processes for consent as currently set out,’ he said.
Amid desperate efforts to win over the DUP – whose 10 MPs are seen as critical to unlocking a Parliamentary majority for a deal – there are hotly denied claims that billions of pounds more funding for Northern Ireland is on the table as a sweetener.
The unionists’ leader Arlene Foster was in No10 for more talks this afternoon, but there are little signs that progress was made. She has dismissed EU claims reported by Irish broadcaster RTE that she had given in on the issue.
If the deadlock persists it means Mr Johnson will be caught by a Remainer law ordering him to beg for an extension beyond October 31. Failing to honour his key pledge would risk the Tories shipping votes to Nigel Farage’s Brexit in a looming election.
Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay seemed to confirm today that Mr Johnson would comply with the law and send a letter requesting a delay on Saturday – but caused confusion by condemning the idea of even a short ‘technical’ postponement.
There are claims the premier could try to dodge the legislation by sending a second contradictory letter, or getting another EU state to veto an extension.
Irish PM Leo Varadkar has conceded there are still ‘many issues’ still to be resolved, hinting that an emergency summit might be needed in around a fortnight’s time.
He admitted VAT and how to get the consent of the people of Northern Ireland were sticking points.
Despite the EU’s Michel Barnier setting a deadline of last night for a deal to be finalised in time for tomorrow’s Brussels summit, a meeting of ambassadors from member states has been delayed to allow a few more hours of wrangling.
Downing Street has been frantically dampening down expectations, describing the mood as ‘downbeat’ and warning there are ‘still hurdles to overcome’.
But in a conflicting signal, the EU’s Michel Barnier reportedly told diplomats behind closed doors that he remains ‘optimistic’ about finding a way through in the coming hours.
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier looked to be feeling the pace today as he attending meetings in Brussels
Irish PM Leo Varadkar( pictured left today) warned this morning that there are still ‘many issues’ still to be solved, hinting that an emergency summit might be needed in around a fortnight’s time. Boris Johnson (pictured right outside 10 Downing Street yesterday) is scrambling to get a Brexit deal that can satisfy Tory hardliners and the DUP
The ‘compromise’ on the table is thought to revolve around installing a de facto customs border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain – but keeping the UK legally intact and offering businesses in the province rebates to offset any tariff differences.
The UK had initially suggested a Stormont ‘lock’ where every four years a majority of republicans and a majority of unionists would have to vote to stay in the ‘backstop’ arrangements. That is similar to the Good Friday Agreement model.
But Brussels called foul because the blueprint would effectively give the DUP a veto over keeping ties to the EU – undermining the value of the insurance policy.
It is the new compromise arrangement that seems to have run into a roadblock from the DUP.
Even if Mr Johnson manages to pull together an agreement and get it through the Commons this week, he is facing the threat of a delay to his ‘do or die’ Halloween deadline for Brexit .
Both France and Germany have indicated they want months to scrutinise the detail before rubber-stamping an agreement.
The EU’s leverage has been dramatically increased by a Remainer law that obliges the PM to beg the bloc for an extension until at least January if a deal has not been struck by this Saturday.
Giving evidence to MPs in Westminster, Mr Barclay said: ‘I can confirm as the Prime Minister has repeatedly set out that firstly the government will comply with the law and secondly it will comply with undertakings given to the court in respect of the law.’
Pressed on whether the government would accept a ‘technical’ extension to ratify any last-minute deal, Mr Barclay insisted he was against any delay.
DUP MP Mr Wilson gave an insight into the unionists’ objections to the emerging package during the hearing.
He accused the Irish of trying to subvert the painstakingly negotiated mechanisms in the Good Friday Agreement for obtaining consent on controversial issues.
He demanded of Mr Barclay: ‘What I would like to hear from you is a confirmation that the terms that are set out in the Belfast Agreement, for consent for a controversial issue, or an issue which requires a change in the powers of the assembly or requires legislation, would be the method by which this consent would be sough.
‘Not, as the Irish Government has said, simply by a majority vote, but by a cross-community vote, which is essentially part of the terms of the Belfast Agreement.’
Speaking in Ireland this morning, Mr Varadkar suggested the chances of an agreement are reducing.
‘There is a pathway to a possible deal but there are many issues that still need to be fully resolved, particularly around the consent mechanism and also some issues around customs and VAT,’ he said.
‘I spoke to the (UK) Prime Minister by phone this morning and I have also been in contact with the European Commission and I do think we are making progress but there are issues yet to be resolved and hopefully that can be done today.
‘But if it’s not, there is still more time. October 31 is still a few weeks away and there is the possibility of an additional summit before that if we need one.’
October 28 has been mooted as a potential date for an emergency summit – just three days before the UK’s current departure.
In order to take effect, a pact needs to be agreed between the EU council and the British government. The Commons must then vote to approve it and pass legislation, while the European Parliament also has to give endorsement.
Should a deal be reached, a draft text of the agreement could be published today.
But as the drama unfolded overnight, Downing Street was desperately trying to play down expectations of an imminent breakthrough.
DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson (pictured at a committee hearing today) said the consent mechanism should be modelled on the peace terms, which requires backing from a majority of both communities
One Whitehall insider said: ‘There is progress, but one mis-step and it can all turn to dust.’
Another source told MailOnline the details were still ‘in the sausage machine’.
There was also some anger at EU officials for trying to ‘bounce’ the UK into more concessions by talking up the prospects of a pact.
Mr Johnson’s efforts were boosted last night by a warm response from a group of so-called Spartan MPs – Brexiteers who rejected Theresa May’s deal three times.
Mr Johnson knows he must have the majority of members of the 60-strong ERG group on board or his deal has little chance of making it through a vote in the House of Commons.
ERG chief Mr Baker, a former Brexit minister, said after talks in No10: ‘I am optimistic that it is possible to reach a tolerable deal I am able to vote for.’
He later urged colleagues to ‘trust’ the PM to bring back a deal that respected their red lines.
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and anti-EU battler Sir Bill Cash MP also sounded positive.
But deputy chair Mark Francois was more circumspect, saying merely that the meeting with Mr Johnson was ‘interesting’ and there would be ‘further chats’.
Mr Francois told Sky News today that Eurosceptics had not been told the exact shape of the proposals, but had a ‘number of concerns’.
Conventional wisdom in Westminster is that if Mr Johnson manages to satisfy the DUP – whose 10 MPs have been propping up the Tory government – most of the ERG will swing behind a deal.
However, the support of the unionist party appears far from certain today.
After Ms Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds held a 90-minute meeting in Downing Street last night, a DUP spokesman said: ‘It would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required.’
The DUP is demanding that Northern Ireland must leave the EU together with the rest of the UK, saying there cannot be a customs border in the Irish Sea.
Rebel alliance in Brussels: Remainers including Lib Dem Vince Cable, Labour’s David Lammy Ex-Tory rebel Dominic Grieve, and Green Caroline Lucas travelled to Brussels today for meetings with European officials.
Asked whether she trusted Mr Johnson to protect Northern Ireland’s interests, Mrs Foster said: ‘I don’t trust anyone else in these negotiations. I trust myself.’
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis said he believed a majority of Tory MPs will want to back whatever the PM brings back from Brussels as it is the ‘last play’ to secure Brexit.
But he warned Mr Johnson against dismissing the DUP’s complaints.
‘The test of that will be, of course, the DUP,’ told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
‘There will be, quote, a lot of Tory MPs who will take their line from what the DUP do.’
He was reminded that a customs divide in the Irish Sea was once described by DUP leader Arlene Foster as a ‘blood red’ line.
‘Well let’s see when she sees the detail of the deal whether she thinks this is a blood red line or an acceptable compromise,’ Mr Davis said.
‘I will look at what they say because it will be important, if the DUP says ‘this is intolerable to us’ that will be quite important.’
However, senior figures in both the EU and Westminster warned that Mr Johnson will be forced to seek another Brexit delay even if a deal is done this week.
A senior German government official told The Times that political agreement on a deal would not be sufficient ‘to resolve technical issues’ and therefore Brexit would need to be postponed for a third time until January 1.
‘Without a deal this week, Britain will need an extension. With a deal this week, Britain will need an extension,’ a senior EU diplomatic source said.
Last night’s apparent breakthrough came after the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier set a midnight deadline for talks to conclude so details of any agreement could be drawn up for tomorrow’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels. He said: ‘Even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult to be frank, it is still possible.’
A Whitehall source said negotiations would go to the wire, adding: ‘The big moments in the EU have all been done at one minute to midnight. There is no expectation this will be any different.’
Last night, Mr Johnson’s chief negotiator David Frost remained locked in talks inside the EU Commission’s headquarters to reach the midnight deadline. The British team was still pushing for a ‘hybrid’ customs arrangement that would allow the UK to claim Northern Ireland was leaving the EU’s customs jurisdiction under the terms of the Irish backstop designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
Brussels sources said the UK had offered major concessions by moving closer to the EU demand for Northern Ireland to stay in the bloc’s customs union and creating a customs border in the Irish Sea.
But there was irritation in Downing Street last night about efforts by the EU to ‘bounce’ Mr Johnson into further concessions by suggesting a deal was all but done. ‘We have made good progress, but there is still a way to go, a source said. ‘It’s going to go through the night – and it could all still fall apart.’
If a deal is struck, MPs could sit on Saturday for the first time since the Falklands War to approve it.
No10 said Parliament would be asked to work ‘around the clock’ for an October 31 Brexit.
Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay seemed to confirm today that Mr Johnson will send a letter requesting a delay on Saturday if necessary
Mr Johnson’s Brexit ‘sherpa’ David Frost (left) and ambassador to the EU Tim Barrow (right) were back at the European Commission HQ for talks this morning
Arlene Foster (pictured leaving Downing Street last night) said the only person she trusted to safeguard the union was herself
If a deal is not struck, Mr Johnson faces a clash with Parliament and the courts over a controversial law requiring him to seek a Brexit delay until the end of January.
Even if there is an agreement, former justice secretary David Gauke said pro-Remain MPs would insist on another delay to ensure any deal gets full parliamentary scrutiny.
Mr Gauke, one of 21 former Tory rebels Mr Johnson needs to win back, said he and his colleagues would only back a deal if Mr Johnson agreed to ask for more time.
‘If he gets a deal I would be supportive,’ he said. ‘But I wouldn’t want to be in a position where we vote for a deal on Saturday, something then goes wrong in the next 12 days and we crash out without a deal on October 31.’
Stephen Kinnock, one of the Labour moderates whose votes are being targeted by No10, also said there would ‘need to be an extension’ even if a deal is struck this week to push through the complex divorce legislation.
German officials and French President Emmanuel Macron warned that a delay may be needed to iron out details of Mr Johnson’s complex proposal for avoiding a hard border in Ireland.
One senior EU source said: ‘Without a deal this week, Britain will need an extension. With a deal this week, Britain will need an extension.’
Irish premier Leo Varadkar suggested Mr Johnson will only be offered an agreement in principle at the summit.
He said: ‘Indications are that we are making progress. But whether we’ll be able to conclude a revised Withdrawal Agreement, which is an international treaty, for the summit, that’s unclear.’
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons and a former ERG chair, told LBC: ‘I think the votes are there now for a deal.’
But, in an interview with The Sun, former environment secretary Owen Paterson dubbed it ‘unacceptable’ that Mr Johnson was reportedly preparing to agree to a border down the Irish Sea, creating custom checks on goods travelling between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Facing election meltdown? Jeremy Corbyn in Watford today. He is under increasing pressure form Labour MPs to switch his stance to support a second referendum before an election
Dominic Cummings (pictured right arriving in Downing Street today) is said to be masterminding the government’s Brexit strategy
While still in office, Mrs May said such an arrangement could never be accepted by a British prime minister.
Mr Paterson said: ‘We await the full details of the new deal to see exactly how they address the objections to the dead Theresa May deal, but dual-tariff systems like this would be, as Priti Patel has said, unacceptable.’
The DUP, in a statement after their second audience with the PM in as many days, were also decidedly lukewarm on the mooted proposals.
‘We respect the fact negotiations are ongoing and therefore cannot give a detailed commentary but it would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required,’ a spokesman said.
Leader Arlene Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds slipped out of the back exit of Downing Street and avoided waiting journalists following the meeting.
A deal will need to be published, along with a legal text, if the EU27 are to consider ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement at their gathering this week, meaning the pressure is on to sign off on the draft agreement.
Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that the EU would work ‘until the last minute’ to seal an agreement.
In a speech to German industry, she added that the UK was going to be ‘another competitor on Europe’s doorstep and that will require the EU even more strongly to be competitive and to take geopolitical responsibility.’
source:dailymail