There are growing concerns that Jair Bolsonaro may refuse to concede defeat in this Sunday’s crucial election in Brazil after his politician son claimed the president of that country on the far right was the victim of “the greatest electoral fraud ever seen” amid unsubstantiated allegations of wrongdoing.
The president’s senator son, Flávio Bolsonaro, made a statement that was nearly verbatim to what Bolsonaro’s most well-known worldwide supporter, Donald Trump, said when the senator lost the 2020 US race to Joe Biden.
Trump spoke to “the worst fraud in the history of our country from an election sense” while making bogus accusations of massive voter fraud.
Pro-Trump zealots stormed the Capitol in an unsuccessful attempt to alter the outcome a few weeks later, on January 6, 2021.
Many believe Bolsonaro would stick to the same script if he loses to his leftist opponent, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who won the first round of the election on October 2 and is presently leading by a margin of 4% to 5%.
Long-standing worries that Bolsonaro, who has spent years criticizing Brazil’s democratic system, might contest the outcome grew on Monday after his communications minister, Fábio Faria, called journalists to the press conference to denounce what he called “a grave violation of the electoral system.”
Faria said that local radio stations in northeast Brazil had aired thousands more Lula campaign advertisements without providing any supporting documentation.
He urged his followers, saying, “You need to cast your ballot because we are being constrained.”
On Wednesday, Bolsonaro’s campaign submitted a petition asking for the alleged irregularity to be looked at, but Alexandre de Moraes, Brazil’s chief electoral judge, denied it.
Instead, Moraes urged a probe into whether the “unsupported” charges were intended to “disrupt” the election.
Bolsonaro, though, backed up his accusations by telling reporters that the election had been “unbalanced” in favor of Lula.
According to Bolsonaro, who Trump recently praised as “one of the best leaders of any country in the world,” “one side – my side – has been badly handicapped.”
During the 2018 election, which he won, Flávio Bolsonaro contrasted the alleged campaign against his father to the failed assassination attempt on the rightwing populist.
Bolsonaro tweeted, “Bolsonaro has been knifed for a second time,” promising to win the elections despite attempts to rig the results.
The senator stated in a subsequent tweet that his father was a victim of “the worst electoral fraud ever seen.”
Lasier Martins, a different senator who supports Bolsonaro, stated that postponing the election was the only option.
Political analyst Thomas Traumann, who resides in Rio, referred to Bolsonaro’s allegations of radio fraud as “absolute rubbish” and expressed his conviction that Bolsonaro was prepared to contest the outcome of what is largely seen as Brazil’s most significant election in decades.
“I am quite certain.
He will argue against this, Traumann stated.
Among the most extreme Bolsonaro supporters, “the question is the scope of the violence that challenge creates.”
Trump is his hero and his role model, Traumann continued.
Trump then did what?
He fought back, refused to concede defeat, incited violent protests, left office without quitting, and kept up the pressure on his supporters by engaging them in ways that prevented them from accepting the legitimacy of the new administration.
This is Bolsonaro’s road map in my opinion.
International observers are particularly concerned about how Bolsonaro would respond if he loses this weekend when 156 million Brazilians go back to the polls.
Thomas Shannon, a former US ambassador to Brazil, expressed alarm about Bolsonaro’s undermining of the political process in a recent interview with the Guardian.
Bolsonaro and his team have closely examined what transpired on January 6 in an effort to understand why it was that a sitting president failed in his attempt to overturn election results. “For me, that can only have one purpose, which is to try to prevent an election from happening or change their course or outcome,” Shannon said.
In Shannon’s opinion, the political systems of the two nations are very similar.
“In a way, the United States and Brazil are mirrors that reflect one another.
Everything that occurs in the United States also occurs in Brazil and the reverse is also true.
Bolsonaro’s criticism of the fairness of the election, according to Americas Quarterly editor-in-chief Brian Winter, was “100%” motivated by Trump.
They have seen that Trump’s continued rejection of the election after January 6 has not endangered his future; in fact, it could have done the opposite.
Since of how crucial the idea of invincibility is to both of these groups, and because the only way Donald Trump could lose and remain in power was by maintaining that he won, Winter said.
It’s possible that the Bolsonaros reached the same conclusion.
Winter said that Bolsonaro’s popularity was overestimated in the first round polls and that it was still feasible for him to win.
Lula received 48.4% of the vote on October 2; however, Bolsonaro performed significantly better than projected, receiving 43.2% of the vote as opposed to the 36% or 37% pollsters had predicted.
Winter stated, “I still believe that this contest will come down to the wire and that 215 million people will be experiencing heart attacks at the same time on Sunday night when the results come in.
“I still believe he can win.
We’ll see, but I don’t believe that to be the most likely conclusion.