With all 1.7 million votes counted from the overnight declarations it becomes possible to narrow down the national estimated share for the main parties with a general election likely some time next year. It pays to be cautious with over 150 councils and more than six thousand seats still to decided.
Based on the analysis of change in vote share across 900 wards, the eventual Conservative share is projected to lie between 28-30%, while for Labour the range is 36-38%. The Liberal Democrats, making steady seat gains, are projected to win 18-20% share. The share for others has the largest spread – 16-19%.
Assuming a uniform national swing, these vote shares and applying them to the seats decided at the last general election suggest that Labour is on course to become the largest party at the next election but falling short of winning an outright majority.